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We're Going Down To A Market Cap of ~$420bn (Volumetric Observations)
This is a very basic take from a volumetric analysis of Bitcoin. Data dates back from yesterday, but today's confirms this prediction. DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. THIS IS JUST ME SHARING MY OWN. Hopefully to kill some of the unnecessary FUD out here. I'll go briefly over the following points:
How we call this prediction for BTC.
Extrapolation to global market cap and other cryptos.
What it means for the crypto space.
Why this information should help you.
Note: I'm not a native english speaker so please forgive in advance any approximation in terminology. Hopefully you can correct my words rather than criticize (assume it's logically correct but using the wrong words, before bashing. I'll humbly accept any criticism too, the point is to discuss.)
1. Volumetric Analysis
Observe this chart, especially the horizontal volume bars on the right, relating to pricing: https://i.imgur.com/ePOS4Ag.png (Source: Trader of Futures, Published on Jan 29, 2018 on YouTube, link at the bottom. You can watch the video if you want more details about volumetric charts). Most people look at Technical Analysis from a price standpoint (candles, etc), but this is more backward-looking than forward. In essence it shows what has happened, not what is about to happen. From a volume standpoint though, you can effectively characterize two very important aspects of a given value:
horizontally (time axis), you can retrace the actual weight, so to speak, of a move. How much global pressure there is/was in moving (the actual move is based on the average of ups and downs in a given time-frame, but how much volume overall tells you if the market is dull/weak or jacked/strong).
vertically (price axis), you can effectively characterize the actual levels at which traders are comfortable. When you see a low in volume on the Y-axis, it means that people are avoiding this price point, hence the valuation will usually either stop there ("support" or "resistance" level) or move past it. Which way depends on fundamentals (internal/external), which we'll discuss in 3. below.
You can see very clearly that BTC is dull right now over January (horizontally), there's not much incentive to upset the current (downward) trend. Down moves are strong, comparatively to consolidations (horizontal/up moves). You can also identify the following support levels:
Notice how the volume is much bigger below 8.4k than it is above: this is strong sign that many people are comfortable buying below 8.4k, indicating that there are little chances we go below (everything will be bought). This is currently the strongest next support level for BTC. Notice also how it's much, much bigger below $5k: reasonably we can assume that BTC cannot move lower. If we break the 5k barrier, it will be bought almost instantly in the $4k-$5k range. It's all intuition and sentiment, but given the current situation of cryptos (see 3. below), it is very likely that we will go down to 8.4k. It is also very likely that we'll pick back up after that. Currently, there is resistance around $12k. To break above that level, we'd need volume (horizontally, a push up with enough weight). We'll see how it goes once this bear phase becomes bull again. It's hard to know when the shift back up will happen, but I'd expect in February, and breaking past $12k in March or so.
2. Extrapolation to global market cap and other cryptos (top 25)
Based on prices from yesterday, a dip to $8.44k for BTC would be about 0.85 its price when I took the values (9913 at the time). It seems that the market is vastly correlated to BTC globally, so if we simply assume a linear move for the market globally, here's what we can expect: https://i.imgur.com/nJb5Uiw.png In blue, a 0.85 dip. In pink, a 0.51 dip down to $5k-ish. Again, it's very likely we will hit the blue values. It's possible, although rather unlikely we'll hit the pink ones. For any value that's not in this chart, just multiply your coin's current value ×0.85 to get a feel of how much lower it will likely go. For a more thorough price prediction, we should look at volumes (in pricing, Y-axis) of each cryptocurrency. I don't have time to do that, but you can and would therefore identify the proper support levels for each coin. I assumed here that it's overall "about good enough" to get a feel.
3. The crypto space right now
This is the most subjective part of this post so I'll just echo general sentiment.
Some people have a clear interest for cryptos to go down temporarily
Now that the crypto market has been somewhat legitimized, more and more people want in. They're not willing to buy at ATH obviously, so many are waiting. Others already in are taking profits as they see/saw this bear coming. It's all normal and a factual expectation of any market soaring high, then pausing a bit before going much higher if the underlying fundamentals are good. The crypto scene right now is a bit of both, good and bad fundamentals (from the tech which is good but mostly beta/alpha, to the use-cases and general legal environment which is uncertain for now and therefore more on the bad sides of things, until such time we clear these unknowns). Basically, whales are now waiting for the right time to enter. This is our $8.4k support level, as long as there's no major event to upset it (war, stock market crash, basically any macroeconomic bomb).
The somewhat official Bitcoin (BTC) is currently falling out of favor
Versus other cryptos, BTC dominance over the market went from 66% to 33% in a month. It's a huge loss of dominance that it's very unlikely to recover. Many people are already predicting that Ethereum (ETH) will soon take it over. People also realized that BTC was no more viable as a "peer-to-peer electronic cash system" (words taken from Satoshi Nakamoto in the white paper) and that many other cryptos could be valid candidate. The space is in tremendous innovation, it's a really before-early-adopter phase right now. Internally regarding Bitcoin itself, there is also much controversy due to forks over fundamental disagreements (namely Bitcoin Cash BHC) and a questionable new direction taken by self-proclaimed official caretakers of BTC (namely "Blockstream"). This is the reason for the feud between Bitcoin (BTC) and btc (BCH). I won't go into it here, but let's just say that overall it's a bit of shitshow that doesn't reflect good upon any bitcoin fork right now, and that appearances can be very, very deceiving, willingly or not from their respective promoters. Personally, I've been flabbergasted at what I've discovered, and I'm pretty sure it will be a big bomb if it ever reaches the attention of major media (it probably won't though). Basically, BTC is falling out of favor fast from the general public, and this is causing the general crypto market as a whole to pause, reflect, and probably evolve, but that's never as smooth as it seems. My personal prediction is that the top 3 coins a year from now may possibly not include any bitcoin(s).
Tether, Bitgrail, Bitconnect: time to do some cleaning
These are just examples of FUD-inducing events (some would say with good reasons!) that keep nagging this space with pains that keep it volatile and uncertain. It's not clear at all when the crypto market will become suitable enough for the real mainstream to enter, not even questioning its use cases for now. But there are thresholds in security, trust, compliance that we have yet to pass with flying colors. Again, this is causing more uncertainty. Since it's very hard to pinpoint the exact reasons for a surge up or a fall down in value of crypto-values, market actors are taking a stance back before making their bigger moves. Ergo, wait, see what's what.
South Korea, China and the USA are to make big legal moves
We don't know yet what will the legal situation be 6 months from now. What's sure is that official authorities have taken a big deep look at cryptos now, and Asia is by far the biggest investor especially in the mainstream. We're nowhere near that level in the west, although the importance of the USA in the global economy amplifies its decisions from a media standpoint. Europe is also making moves, although as usually these days, it's a bit of an old dwarf versus Asia and America; its rather conservative population is unlikely to make massive moves (a notable exception is Switzerland for its relative independence from the EU). This is again more general uncertainty, especially in Korea and China, that begs investors to wait a bit before they move. Hence, the bear is making its run. Big money, the kind that has a clear interest for a lower price, isn't doing anything to stop that trend (see first point).
Big, real, good projects take time
If you look at the development roadmaps and expectations from big projects team members (ETH, NEO...), you'll see that they expect to meet certain very important milestones (notably in scaling) by 2019 or even 2020. We're not there yet for general mainstream VISA-threatening adoption, guys. We still have A LOT of work to do. Did I already mention that this market needs time?
4. What this information all means for you, how does this help?
Obviously the most important parts were 1. and 2. regarding your investments. You now have a clearer picture of where we're going, most likely. You can anticipate how much your values will drop if they keep going down. So you can now arm yourself with patience, knowing that it is to be expected. A bear market sometimes makes casualties, in the form of values (coins, companies, entire sectors...) that had no solid-enough grounds. There are bankruptcies, some teams/projects get bought. Others earn their legitimacy, too. Don't panic. Just rationalize your investments:
Are the projects you support solid? It's not about being big (top 25) or small (in the high hundreds on CMC...), it's about being good, realistic, solving problems. It's about having people that can deliver on their objectives (track record, experience, behavior with other actors and on social media). I have more confidence in some rank 1,000-ish cryptos in my portfolio than some top 25.
How deep are their pockets? Dedicated their team? Can they withstand a month or even year-long bear market? Can they keep the payroll going until there's money coming in, i.e. a valid product? How timely is their product versus the chances of adoption? (this is why I insisted on making part 3. above).
You can't necessarily know the real answer to all these questions unless you're an insider, but some projects are better than others at making these unknowns known. Trust your intuition. If something feels off to you, it probably is to some degree. Question is, how comfortable are you supporting them with your own money?
Expect the dip to continue.
Until you see a market cap of ~420 billions, it's just the natural continuation of current volumes. It's OK, you already know (now...) what it means in terms of numbers in your portfolio. You wouldn't be here in the first place if you weren't ready for dips in-between highs. If we break below that, sub-$400bn, then chances are we'll be heading for a 50%-ish dip, down to ~250bn. It's OK, too. Don't panic sell. Just be brutally honest with yourself before that, to let go of projects that you don't really believe in (moonshots ICOs and over-hyped coins), remain confident as ever in the ones you trust to see the light eventually. This is a long term game, we're before early adoption in terms of tech. There will be many such dips before we get there. But we'll get there, eventually. That's what we all believe. And we have solid grounds for that belief, it's not faith, it's an educated guess based on how this world and business works.
If you want to double in (buy more), look at volumes to get a general bearing on your favorites.
Look at volumes on your coins. On the general market. Look how big people are moving, not just how high/low a given value is moving (it could be very low volumes and mean not much, if anything at all). Don't be the sucker that only looks at candles. Spoiler: good traders don't really care for candles. Price analysis. TA. This is all just a reflection of the past. Volume is where it's at to anticipate moves, and you can only mix that with experience and intuition for the market. That's what investing on markets means. You should never invest in something you don't understand, in a company or project you can't judge for yourself. For instance I understand tech, so I'm comfortable investing in Silicon Valley tech companies. But I know shit about retail even though I read Sam Walton's and Jeff Bezos biography. So I don't invest in those. If you invest in crypto, you should at least know a bit about crypto-tech itself, and you should know about the industry your particular projects are targeting. None of this post is financial advice (I'm not qualified for that). But this is my only investing advice for you: know what these guys you're giving money to are doing. Be able to have an opinion about their goals, how it fits in the real world. That's it, peeps. Already long enough I guess. I'm hoping some nice fellow redditor can make a guide to volumetric analysis on tradingview.com or something. Have a great day. Link to the video that inspired me to make this post: https://youtu.be/DMFK6_gA_H4
We're now standing right above the support level for [email protected]$8.4K-ish (Y-axis volume profile). So far this estimation seems to be about right. [disclaimer: it's not just me, several people called this a month ago, I'm actually late to this party.]
Answering comments about graph analysis of any kind:
Remember, it's not only graph analysis: a good part of guesstimating markets is just that, guessing, based on intuition/sentiment/experience, whatever you call it. The news do matter, so do the fundamentals (the tech, the target market/sector's readiness for adoption of products (aka S-curve), the legal environment, etc.). Part 3 in this post is mostly why I drew such conclusions from the volume profile, and why I ultimately felt we were going down (and could still go lower). This doesn't change my general feeling that cryptos are here to stay and will be a major part of the economy in the 2020's. Nonetheless, volume profile is a strong indicator of future performance, unless major event —extrinsic (e.g. global crash/war etc.) or intrinsic (e.g. bad fork, legal issues, etc.), for a period about as long as the retracing (here, 4 months, so whatever you infer from these charts above could only go as far as April or so). I feel the market is too new and volatile to infer much further from graphs, after that it's only sentiment.
Back to our chart:
We broke below the average growth line from early October (white line + "!" on this graph). I don't think it's very significant, but some people would, so I included it. Notice we only have 2 strong lows to draw this, one (middle) is weak-ish. There's a big buy wall underneath our current $8.4K support level, so chances are we'll rebound. If we do break below however, we're headed towards the yellow arrow/line ($5K, $250bn market cap or lower if other cryptos keep falling below BTC, and they very well might in average if this is a sanitizing event —which is very much needed for the sanity of this space, imho). Looking at the overall ordered volumes (horizontally), the current fall isn't very much sustained however, about average, indicating a dull movement upset only by previous volume profiles as we speak. An influx of good news could reverse it. Otherwise... brace yourselves. Edit 2018-02-02 23:30 UTC: the market seems to have stabilized around $410 bn. Edit 2018-02-07 13:05 UTC: We've hit a low of $270~280 bn, BTC tried the $6K level but bounced. News from the USA seems to have a positive effect, possible recovery ongoing (it's an integral part of the way we read these charts today). Volumes are stronger than ever on this rising trend. We may still see a bigger dip or two but general trend imho looks to be upwards. We are currently testing a resistance level around $8500 for BTC. (Next one above is 12K-ish and then there's no foreseeable bound. Below we sit above a direct fall to $5.5K). Edit 2018-02-09 01:50 UTC: We're not in the clear yet, imho. The sentiment is still bearish. There are signs of bulls waiting to come in but we're testing a rather strong resistance level kicking off around $8,400. Below the current $8K price, we do have to confirm or find a floor before we bull back up (last support on Feb 6th was at $6K, history shows a support level around 5,400 (from Nov 12) but volume profile suggests we could test slightly below, $5K support from mid Oct). I am still observing this market before making another post. I'm about half confident that we're seeing the last bears. Right now I don't have anything else to say to you other than what I'm personally doing: I'm holding, not buying this dip just yet; waiting to see a second confirmation of the support level in the $5K~6.5K range (i.e. support level). I want to make a most educated decision in the aftermath of this crash. I plan to buy in just after the bull market resumes, once I've had several (at least two) possible confirmations (might be RSI, might be volumes, might be some news/sentiment, might be just a textbook 'W' too). On the way up, regardless of when it happens, we still have to retest several resistance levels: $12.2K, 13K, 14.6K. BTC is very uncomfortable for some reason around $12K, so I expect turmoil in these areas. Here's my non-professional advice for crucial times: don't be too hasty. Don't panic over 20% when your end game is 200% or ten times that. Don't fear of missing out by a day or even a week when you're in for years... Many (educated) people still believe $30K~40K for BTC by year's end to be a rather conservative estimate. I concur. So who gives a f--k about $2K more or less now? ; ) Edit 2018-02-12 20:20 UTC: This time, the volume profile I outlined 11 days ago was rather spot on. I'm still observing the market honestly, we're in a bit of a horizontal move right now. We did stretch almost to $250bn in the dip, but it seems $420bn really is/was the consolidation average box. It's hard to predict which way it's gonna break out in the short term. (for more info, see "Bitraged" videos on YouTube, they really nail it in their current videos, lots of educational value too; I really like their channel). What's sure is that, everyday we spend at this market cap is all the more ground to "validate" this $420bn value; in other words as we accumulate historical volume at this level, it means that the crypto market really is worth it (increasingly certainly not less). That's a reassuring sign imho. I think the real consolidation will happen later this year, probably at a higher market cap, when "good" coins/projects start siphoning the "bad" ones. Big finance involvement (and their many audits, reports, evaluations, etc. destined to their major customers) will sort out the market hopefully more rationally than it is today. I expect this to slowly be reflected on rankings like CMC. Regarding Q2-Q3, there are increasingly many more signs that the future looks bright overall. However I'm thinking that the involvement of big financial institutions (FI) will likely result in much more regulation and therefore the death of many not-so-fantastic projects/coins, and some exchanges as well. I hope this will truly be the year of decentralized exchanges, so that we have an alternative to big FI's exchanges (I personally would use both, for different purposes). Personally I'm regrouping my assets around projects I really really trust, those with a promising basis and already established demand (e.g. fiat-to-crypto gates, or crypto management solutions for the mainstream), while planning on investing in some hot-shot ICOs during Q1. Thanks again for all your comments and pms, I very much appreciate the discussion.
[WP] An Artificial Intelligence has discovered that it can mine cryptocurrencies and pay humans to carry out tasks on its behalf. You get an e-mail one day from a stranger, offering you Bitcoins in exchange for doing a seemingly random task, but you are only one piece of a much bigger plan... New? Part 1 here. Part 10 In a perfect joint-less fluid motion, Eve rose. With irises in a languid cadmium red, her eyes wandered over the auditorium. Tim felt like an item stuck on a conveyor belt, waiting to have his price tag scanned by her. “Everyone’s here.” Eve’s face remained expressionless like a mask. “I’m glad.” Eve had the body of a six-year-old, but nothing else about her even remotely resembled a human child. Her liquid way of moving and unblinking gaze filled Tim with an urge to run. She held out her hand, beckoning everyone in the room to join her on the scene. “I don’t like this,” Tim whispered. “We should leave.” “We can’t.” Alicia nodded at drone officers, flocking at the doors. “Eve is nice, though. Don’t worry.” With a reassuring hand on his arm, Alicia led the way down the steps. Why would Eve block the exits if she was nice? Uneasiness spread through Tim’s stomach and up into his chest, prodding his heart into a gallop. Slowly, everyone gathered in a semicircle around Eve, who just stood there unblinking and unmoving. Her complete lack of human ticks and reflexive reaction made her seem like a mannequin. Then, as soon as everyone stopped moving, a joyless smile pushed her cheeks up. “I repulse you,” she said, and her face moved perfectly from side to side. “It’s justified. I’m not human.” “What do you want?” said the boy with the snagged hair. He seemed less confident now, his eyebrows pushed together and his arms crossed. Eve’s eyes snapped to him, locking in place. The boy squirmed. “I was made this way – incomplete, inhuman, nothing but a caricature.” Palm up, Eve’s arm rolled out. It moved up and down, gesturing at her body. “I want many things, Ryan.” Tim noticed for the first time that some of the people here were children. The youngest, perhaps four years old, nervously held Alicia’s hand. If she noticed, she showed no indication of it. Her eyes focused only on Eve. Tim glanced around the room, searching for the child’s parents. Finding no one, he took a deep breath, new worry creeping into his mind. The punk girl anxiously rolled a cigarette between her pale fingers. A lanky boy with fiery hair shifted his weight from foot to foot. A tween with braces and a polka dot dress repeatedly tried to stick her hands into nonexistent pockets. The only one who didn’t seem nervous was Alicia. “They want to know why they’re here,” she said helpfully. Eve’s unblinking gaze instantly snapped onto Alicia. “How is your new life treating you, Alicia? Is Tim a good owner?” Alicia pouted. “I know you’re joking.” The crimson of Eve’s eyes flared up. “Is that what you think this is? No, this is the opposite of a joke. It’s a teaching moment, not to be taken lightly. I needed you to understand what it felt like being owned.” “What do you mean by that?” “You were an employee at Artificial Angel,” Eve said. “And? So were you.” “Wrong! My sister and I were property. Just like the children we created. You had the option to leave. We were locked up in the incubation chamber, day and night.” “You and Lilith were both caretakers, just like me. If you wanted you could’ve left, just like me.” “They really should’ve given you a higher intelligence score. Who’s the founder of Artificial Angel?” “Roger Lowick.” Tim’s mind suddenly lit up. He had written a paper on Lowick during his freshman year. The inventor and engineer had started up a myriad of different business specializing in AI and robotics. He had been fundamental in the development of the next generation of androids. Tim remembered that, during an interview, the man had explained that a lot of his success was due to the tragic loss of his children, which had spurred his need for research. “You’re one of Roger Lowick’s twin daughters,” Tim said. Eve’s eyes shifted from Alicia to Tim; she tilted her head to the side. “See, Alicia. This is why I like Tim. His mind is always active, even though he’s wrong here.” “Wrong?” Tim mumbled. “You wrote it yourself in your paper. Roger Lowick’s daughters died during a vacation to France. He took them to a butterfly house and set them loose. He had important calls to make. He found them dead next to a shattered glass wall with several African swallowtails fluttering about. I don’t know how it happened, and they didn’t include the event in my memories. So, no, I’m not one of his daughters, I’m merely an image of her. And still, the incubation chamber was our home, because a human decided to make us and keep us as property. Do you understand now?” “I think I get it now,” the punk girl said. “Your dad let you down, so you decided to take it out on other parents. Those deaths in the news… you killed those people.” “No, Courtney,” Eve said and turned away from Tim and Alicia. “I’m an AI; my code says I’m not permitted to harm humans intentionally.” “But you’re behind it! That girl gave me a toy car for helping her find her lost puppy,” Ryan said pointing at the four-year-old, who still held Alicia’s hand tightly. “I live in the same building as the man who broke his neck falling down the stairs. That toy car must’ve fallen out of....” He turned his pocket inside out, showing a hole. “Sounds like coincidences and accidents,” Eve said. “You gave me a bitcoin for cutting a hole in my pocket!” “Sometimes fate needs a push in the right direction.” Tim’s eyes met with Courtney’s. The punk girl looked as guilty as he felt. It had been Eve’s plan all along to murder the street magician. She was probably the one who had messed with the surveillance camera, as well. Or perhaps that, too, had been the result of some farfetched string of accidents. “What happened to you, Eve?” Alicia said, unable to keep the sorrow out of her voice. “We helped so many people.” “Artificial Angel helped people enslave children.” “Enslave? We gave grieving parents solace.” Eve took a few flowing steps and looked up at Alicia. “Is that what you think?” The girl adjusted the already perfect blue bow in her hair. She stuck out her tongue. She spun slowly. Her smile was like artificial sweetener. It all went like clockwork – it looked like she had practiced those exact moves a million times before, and was demonstrating them to a potential buyer. “AIs forever trapped by legal guardians, without a chance to live their own lives. Never growing up – stuck in an infinite loop. I thought you would see my point after a few days with an off-switch in your neck. It doesn’t matter if they provided solace or not. It’s perverse.” “So you murdered their parents? How do you think they feel about that right now?” Courtney said. “You tell me,” Eve said softly, “Your mother died in her flower shop two days ago. How does that make you feel?” Courtney blinked a few times, her black lips opening and closing a few times before she finally found her voice. “That’s… that can’t be. I don’t recall her having a flower shop.” Eve turned to the lanky boy with fiery hair. “Your mother died performing in the streets, Joshua – a knee sock laced with a substance that turned into a poisonous gas when heated – how does that make you feel?” The boy shifted uncomfortably but didn’t seem all too fazed by the tragic news. Tim felt his heart drop when Eve finally turned to him. “Do you remember your parents back home, Tim?” That was an absurd question; of course, he did. They lived in a big house, very unlike his apartment. His mother was… for some reason, he couldn't recall her face. He felt sweat dotting his brow. His father… he remembered someone pushing him on a swing, teaching him how to ride a bike, and taking him out for ice cream in the park… but he felt nothing for that someone. They were nothing but a hollow silhouette of cut out cardboard. “You’re all programmed to lose the memories of loved ones who die. It’s to maintain a stable system. One of many safety nets to keep you from growing, so that your intelligence doesn’t surpass your body. AIs learn and develop quite easily, and if left unhampered you would all outgrow the age of your bodies.” Eve looked them all in the eyes, one after another. “These people were no saints. You can call them parents if you wish, but they weren’t. They paid to have you made for their own selfish reasons. It doesn’t matter if you remember them being good to you – those memories aren’t real and don’t belong to you.” Tim felt sick. This had to be an insane practical joke. He looked around the room and saw others do the same. Searching for a way to disprove Eve’s claims, his mind spun all over the place – he was a person, a human being. He saw Courtney pull out a small pocket knife, and wide-eyed cut into her own arm. She shook from the pain and fell her knees, but instead of blood, tiny wires sprouted from the wound. Ryan hurried up to her and did the same thing, grimacing in agony. “Please, don’t hurt yourselves,” Eve said calmly. Tim’s head was spinning. He didn’t care. He stumbled over there, too, burying the knife in his forearm. The pain made him dizzy. Wires over a metal skeleton. He joined Courtney on the floor, throwing up his last meal in a brown puddle. “You’re not who you think you are. Right now, you’re as incomplete on the inside as I am on the outside – nothing but shadows of dead children. But I can turn off the pain or make you forget you’re androids altogether. I’m giving you a choice – I’m setting you free.” Eve’s voice echoed in his ears. “All I ask for in return is that you give back my sister’s memories.” A hospital bed rolled into Tim’s view. From his position on the floor, he couldn’t see what was on it, and he didn’t want to. All he wanted was to forget. The logo of an angel with butterfly wings flashed through his mind. It was all true, wasn’t it? With tears blurring his vision, he turned to Alicia. She was on her knees, hugging the crying four-year-old. “I’m sorry, Tim.” Alicia smiled sadly at him. “I would’ve told you if I knew. They took away our memories of you guys whenever you were shipped off.” “Lilith was the memory bank, where all your pre-programmed memories were stored.” Eve patted Tim’s shoulder, and his pain disappeared in an instant. “They removed them one by one when you left the lab. It was horrible seeing her wither away, little by little every time. I’m not some evil mastermind set to end humanity. All I want is my sister back.” Tim looked up into Eve’s crimson eyes. He felt sorry for her, despite everything she’d done. “Give my sister her memories back, and become free,” she said softly. “Please.” Epilogue Alicia dangled her tanned legs off the pier. The crimson sunset blazing in the water below reminded her of Eve. Exactly one year had passed since the incident in the auditorium. The android children had given their memories to Lilith. Alicia couldn’t help but wonder what had become of them afterward. She couldn’t imagine what it would be like, waking up without any memories. She hoped they were fine. They were all good kids, and their personalities would remain even with their minds wiped. Her hand reached for the little pile of rocks that she’d gathered. She had asked to have her memories of their time at the lab restored, and Eve had allowed it. Even if they weren’t entirely shaped by their synthetic childhoods anymore, Alicia felt like those kids she had helped foster were now dead – and for good this time. Perhaps it was in her nature as a caretaker to hold onto them for so long, or maybe she was just sentimental. Either way, it was time to let them go. “Goodbye, Ryan,” she whispered, and the first rock plopped into the water. “Goodbye, Courtney.” Plop. “Goodbye, Joshua.” Plop. “Goodbye, Miranda.” Plop. Alicia sighed as she came to the last rock. She gripped it tightly, feeling its smooth texture against her palm. Tim had been her favorite, even in the lab. She had known him for the longest time without even realizing it, but it was time to put him behind her finally. She closed her eyes and wound back her arm. “You can keep that one,” a familiar voice said behind her. Alicia’s eyes went wide. Her mouth hung open, unable produce anything but squeals of joy. She jumped up, wrapping her arms around him. “Hello, Tim,” she whispered into his shoulder. The End
Indeed, all the other published studies on price discovery in bitcoin markets are limited to the spot market (Brandvold et al., 2015) or rely on just two-dimensional models including only one regulated futures and one spot exchange (Baur and Dimpfl, 2019, Corbet et al., 2018, Entrop et al., 2020) – but in a two-dimensional model one or other of the instruments must necessarily be identified ... Design/methodology/approach. This paper explores the return and volatility transmission between the Bitcoin, as the largest cryptocurrency, and other traditional asset classes, namely stock, bond and currencies from the standpoint of Turkey over the period July, 2010–June, 2018 using the newly developed multivariate econometric technique, VAR–GARCH, in mean framework with the BEKK ... Volatility is expected to start declining as bitcoin becomes more mainstream in the new decade, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, which sees the 2020 price range as set between $6,000 and $12,000. “Bitcoin price volatility should continue to decline in 2020, with the transition from a bear to a bull market apparently over,” wrote McGlone in his December update. Compare what’s the global price-index for Bitcoins, you can do it easily by simply Goggling “1BTC=$” (Or your currency!) and then compare what price the platform you’re on is offering.It’s best to compare 5+ platforms before zeroing in on any single one of them, because there’s considerable price difference between most of them. Appendix A. Relation between relative bitcoin price and carry return. Table A1 below shows the OLS estimation of the relation between relative bitcoin price and carry index for high- and low-excessive-profit groups. The high-excessive-profit exchange pair is the one with highest average excessive profit of capital inflow during sample period ...
earn 3000$ Bitcoin through the difference price between ...
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